5 Common Schedule Release Takes — Predictive or Just Noise?

The NFL schedule drops this week, and with it comes a flood of hot takes and surface-level analysis.

Here’s a look at five of the most common media talking points — and whether they’re predictive or just noisy. 

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1. Strength of Schedule (Noisy)

Backward-looking win percentage is noise. Referencing win totals is a better alternative, but it’s not without its flaws.

The most common method of measuring strength of schedule is by calculating the average 2024 win percentage of all 2025 opponents, then ranking teams accordingly. The issue? On average, a team’s win percentage shifts by 9.5% year-over-year. So, if a team’s projected strength of schedule is .520, the actual range is likely to fall somewhere between .425 and .615. That 19-point swing translates to a 3.5-win difference — a massive variance.

A more predictive method gaining traction is averaging the win totals of all 2025 opponents. This approach has proven to be twice as predictive of actual end-of-season opponent strength compared to using prior-year win percentages. Still, even preseason win totals carry a margin of error: since 2019, the average difference between a team’s projected and actual win total has been 2.23 wins. When referencing SOS via win totals, it’s important to factor in a realistic high/low range.

2. Bye Week Timing (Noisy)

A 2020 academic paper from Southern Utah University found no statistical correlation between bye week timing and a team’s likelihood of making the playoffs.

However, there are some notable performance trends depending on the timing of the bye:

• Veteran head coaches (5+ years with the same team) show improved results after late-season byes (Week 11 or later), with an average +2.30 points per game scoring margin. With early-season byes (Week 5–7), the improvement drops to just +0.50 PPG. This may reflect experienced coaches ramping their teams up for a playoff push.

• First-year head coaches show almost no improvement after early byes +0.01 PPG, but see a significant leap after late-season byes +4.09 PPG. That said, much of the late-bye improvement is tied to quarterback changes. Teams that kept the same starter post-bye saw less than half the gain.

The best way to evaluate bye week timing is on a team-by-team basis, as each head coach approaches it with different strategies and priorities.

3. Early-Season Thursday Games (Predictive)

This is schedule poison for first-time head coaches. The abrupt change in prep time, routine, and planning almost always leads to underperformance.

Since the 17-game schedule was introduced in 2021, first-time head coaches are 0-8 on Thursday Night Football in Weeks 2–8. Their record in the first quarter and first half of those games is 2-6. The average scoring margin for these teams is -8.4 points.

Importantly, this does not include Week 1, which is a unique TNF slot with full prep time and should be treated separately.

4. Rest Disparity (Predictive)

Rest disparity has a clear and consistent impact on performance and is rightfully a key metric during schedule season.

Teams with a rest advantage of 3+ days have covered the spread 54% of the time since 2019. In the final five weeks of the season, that jumps slightly to 55% ATS. Despite gains in recovery and sports science, it remains difficult to overcome the physical advantage of a better-rested opponent — especially late in the season.

5. Stand-Alone Games (Noisy, with Context)

Teams scheduled for six or more stand-alone games (primetime, island games) tend to fall short of expectations. On average, these teams finish 0.60 wins below their posted win total.

However, this stat lacks context. Nearly all teams receiving this “spotlight” treatment — with the exception of the 2014 Cowboys and 2024 Jets — were coming off strong seasons and posted with double-digit win totals. They also usually face first- or second-place schedules.

These teams are rarely bad — they’re often legitimate contenders. The reason they fall short has less to do with primetime pressure and more to do with inflated expectations against tougher schedules.

Bonus: International Games (Watch List)

More research is needed as international games expand, but there are several early trends worth monitoring:

• Field conditions and departure timing (early in the week vs. late) seem to have the greatest impact on performance - especially for totals.

• Some teams now face multiple international games per season, creating rare schedule quirks.

Take the 2025 Minnesota Vikings: They’re expected to play in Dublin and London in consecutive weeks. Both games are against road opponents, meaning their schedule shifts from a standard 8 home / 9 road split to a potential 8-7-2. One could even argue the Vikings benefit from a 9-8-1 setup since they remain abroad between games and avoid a second transatlantic flight.

These quirks — removing true road disadvantages, shifting home/away balance, and forcing dome teams to play outdoors late in the season — are not always priced into the market even after they are official. That could present opportunity for sharp bettors.

Enjoy your Monday!

Adam