Do First-Time Play-Calling Head Coaches Succeed Right Away?

Welcome to the Popular Narrative series.

Throughout May, June, and July, I’ll be examining common themes frequently referenced in NFL season and team previews to determine whether they actually matter—or are just offseason noise.

First up: Hiring an offensive-minded head coach that calls plays.

There’s a belief in NFL betting circles that when an offensive coordinator becomes a head coach and retains play-calling duties, the new team’s offense is supposed to take off.

But does the data support that belief?

I reviewed every first-time head coach from 2015–2024 who:

• Was previously an offensive coordinator (and in one case, a quarterbacks coach)

• Was hired as a first-time head coach

• Retained offensive play-calling duties with the new team

I then compared yards per play and yards per drive from their first four games with their new team to those same stats from the prior year. The goal was to see if there was immediate improvement that might justify early-season betting value. I also factored in quarterback continuity and the defensive DVOA of opponents to isolate true improvement from strength-of-schedule noise.

Here’s what I found—and how it may apply to Ben Johnson, Liam Coen, Brian Schottenheimer, and Kellen Moore this upcoming season.

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Yes, there is immediate improvement…

Among the 21 coaches in the sample, during the first four games with their new team:

• Yards per play improved by 5.4%

• Yards per drive improved by 6.2%

• Points per drive improved by 14.7%

That’s a net gain of roughly 2.8 more points per game for a team running an average number of plays.

But major improvement is a 50/50 proposition…

• 14 of 21 (66%) coaches improved their new team across all three categories compared to the prior season

• But only 9 of 21 (43%) improved beyond the average bump

• 7 of 21 (33%) coaches failed to match prior-year production—the team got worse

The 8 best performers had one thing in common…

Each came from modern, respected offensive coaching trees:

• 6 of the 8 came from the Reid tree

• The other 2 came from the Shanahan tree

These coaches replaced either:

• A non-play-calling “CEO” style head coach, or

• A defensive-minded head coach

(Chip Kelly was the one offensive coach replaced by another offensive coach, but his unique extreme tempo scheme had already eroded.)

The 7 worst performers also had a common trait…

6 of the 7 faced brutal opening schedules, with at least 3 opponents ranked top-12 in defensive DVOA for the season.

Even coaches like Matt LaFleur, Kevin O’Connell, Zac Taylor, and Arthur Smith—each inheriting veteran QBs (Rodgers, Cousins, Dalton, Ryan)—couldn’t overcome tough early defensive matchups.

(Nathaniel Hackett was the exception in the 6 of 7. He didn’t face a brutal schedule, it was actually very easy—his Denver tenure just simply goes down as one of the worst hires in NFL history.)

The 4 biggest early-season success stories came from drastic scheme changes…

• Sean McVay over Jeff Fisher
  +14.8 yards/drive, +1.9 points/drive
  From static, run-heavy football to motion-based outside zone and play action.

• Frank Reich over Chuck Pagano
  +10.7 yards/drive, +1.1 points/drive
  Replaced vertical shots with a quick, RPO-friendly system that produced the league’s lowest sack rate and Luck’s best season.

• Matt Nagy over John Fox
  +9.0 yards/drive, +1.4 points/drive
  An Andy Reid disciple replacing an outdated scheme. The result: the second-best Bears offense in the past two decades.

• Mike McDaniel over Brian Flores
  +9.5 yards/drive, +1.1 points/drive
  From scheme-less chaos to the most motion-heavy, space-based offense in the NFL. Immediate improvement.

Quarterback continuity didn’t matter as much as expected…

5 of the 7 failures had returning veteran QBs:

• McAdoo/Manning

• Koetter/Winston

• Kitchens/Mayfield

• Taylor/Dalton

• Smith/Ryan

Only two of the failures had new HC/QB combos: Shanahan/Hoyer and Hackett/Wilson.

Bad scheme and subpar QB play were about evenly split in analyzing the data, but it's surprising that a new head coach with a stable QB didn't guarantee improvement.

The Big Picture

Over the last decade, the biggest early offensive improvements came when:

• A coach from a strong offensive coaching tree (Reid or Shanahan)

• Replaced a non-play-calling CEO or a defensive-minded coach

• Installed systems focused on motion, tempo, play action, and making life easier for the QB

Schedule strength also played a major role. Just 2 of 10 coaches who opened against 3+ top-12 defenses improved over the first month.

2025 Outlook: The Four New Play-Calling Hires

Ben Johnson – Bears

This is very McVay–Goff–2017 esque.

• Caleb Williams, drafted #1, was stuck in a broken offense with a old defensive HC (Eberflus) leading the way and three rotating play-callers—similar to Goff.

• Johnson helped build a top-5 offense in Detroit and was the hot coordinator hire of the offseason—just like McVay.

• The Bears added 3 offensive linemen in FA, then used early picks on a TE and WR—exactly like the Rams did in 2017.

The schedule is brutal, and Johnson’s tree ties aren’t as clear as McVay’s. But the scheme shift is dramatic and the offensive pieces are in place for a jump. High upside.

Liam Coen – Jaguars

This hire reminds me of Zac Taylor to the Bengals.

• Coen’s resume is thin lacklustre aside from his 4 years with McVay. His two OC units at the NFL level have ranked 32nd and 4th.

• Like Taylor, he likely doesn’t get this job without the McVay connection.

• But he walks into a promising situation: Lawrence–Thomas–Hunter is a solid offensive trio, albeit many levels down to what Taylor ended up with in Cincinnati.

Unlike Johnson, Coen is replacing a well-respected, offensive-minded Super Bowl winner. It’s not a drastic scheme change, so it’s hard to see a huge leap here right away—but a modest bump is likely.

Kellen Moore – Saints

Moore offers a huge culture shift from departed defensive minded Dennis Allen.

• He brings intense pace, no-huddle priority, and QB-friendly spacing to the offense.

• The Saints have one of the easiest schedules in the league, and could draw a great run early.

• Tyler Shough may start at QB. Steichen did well with a rookie (Richardson) in a similar situation, coming from Philadelphia working as OC under Nick Sirianni.

There’s no Reid/Shanahan tree here, but Moore could follow the Mike McDaniel script in Miami—replacing a defensive HC (Flores) with a tempo-heavy modern system.

Brian Schottenheimer – Cowboys

This is one I can’t find much of a fit for. It’s a rare non reset hire.

• He’s the first OC promoted internally to first time head coach since Dirk Koetter in 2016.

• His Cowboys offense led the league in scoring in 2023, similar to Koetter in 2015… but no other teams considered them for HC. Why?

There’s minimal scheme reset, change in philosophy, and no modern coaching tree ties. If Dallas improves early, it’ll likely be because:

• Dak stays healthy

• Pickens proves viable opposite Lamb

• There are actual running backs on the roster

…but it likely won’t be because of Schottenheimer’s promotion.

Have an awesome weekend,

Adam