One Week Out: How The Schedule Will Impact These Six Teams Futures

Next Wednesday we will know the exact schedule for each NFL team.

Here are six teams which may be impacted most by the ordering of the home and road games.

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✋ NOTE: I updated end of year market power ratings based on injuries, free agency, trades and draft changes to the roster. These ratings were used to create point spreads for all 272 regular season games. References to strength of schedule are based on update power ratings of opponents. All references to (+) represent team(s) rated better or favored compared to an average team on a neutral field. All references to (-) represent team(s) rated worse or underdogs compared to an average team on a neutral field. For context, the most difficult overall schedule is DET at (+1.65) and easiest is SF at (-1.47).

Washington Commanders

Best schedule scenario: Avoiding “Chiefs” treatment from 2024 as much as possible.

Last year, Kansas City—pushing for a three-peat—was scheduled to play on six different days of the week in standalone games. They were the first football team to do that since 1927 and were also scheduled to play three games in 11 days. Early schedule leak rumors project the Commanders to be the “showcase” team this year. The expectation is a minimum of five standalone games: TNF @ Green Bay, SNF vs Dallas and Denver, MNF vs Chicago, and TNF @ Philadelphia on Christmas. There is an open door for a sixth, possibly against Kansas City. Washington faces the ninth most difficult projected schedule overall (+0.94), so nothing will come easy. But the standalone game draw may put the Commanders in tough rest and spotlight spots all season.

Chicago Bears

Best schedule scenario: Non-division home games stacked early.

The Bears' home opponents rate (-0.94) points worse than an average team. Their road opponents rate (+3.06) points better than an average team. No team has a bigger gap between the projected ease of home schedule and difficulty of road schedule than Chicago. With a new head coach, play caller, overhauled staff, at least three offensive line starters, two new receivers, and a quarterback moving from primarily shotgun to under center, there will be growing pains. Having easier opponents at home to start the season would go a long way in getting wins early, which is crucial in a highly competitive NFC North. If these tough road games are drawn early, Chicago could be chasing from behind all year.

New England Patriots

Best schedule scenario: The more home games earlier, the better.

The Patriots' home opponents rate (-2.06) points worse than an average team—the easiest projected home schedule for any team. The most obvious handicap for a Patriots win total over is the belief that Mike Vrabel’s experience will elevate a retooled defense and boosted offense in year two of Drake Maye back to AFC relevance. Betting on this would benefit from home games early because of the direct advantage it would provide. Home opponents for New England include Atlanta, Carolina, Cleveland, Las Vegas, NY Giants, NY Jets, and Pittsburgh. All of these teams are going through some combination of coach-quarterback instability or inexperience. I think the Vrabel–Maye combo is rated better than the HC–QB combo of those teams.

Buffalo Bills

Best schedule scenario: Tough home games backloaded in late November and December.

Buffalo has the easiest road schedule of any team in the NFL. Their away opponents rate (-2.44) points worse than an average team. It’s likely that Buffalo will be greater than a field goal favorite in every road game this season. The best-case scenario is getting those games out of the way early and leaning into the dominant home-field advantage late to host Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. It gets more difficult to play in Buffalo as the year goes on, and those four teams all have schedules that rank in the top 12 for difficulty and play in highly competitive divisions. If the schedule draws this way, the Bills may be walking fresh to the No. 1 seed while those teams come into Highmark Stadium beat up and worn down late in the year.

Denver Broncos

Best schedule scenario: As many of the home games vs Kansas City, Los Angeles, Cincinnati, and Green Bay as possible in September.

The 2025 Broncos defense has a reasonable chance of being the first team to hold opposing offenses to 4.5 yards per play or fewer in a season since... the 2015 Broncos did it. This unit is going to be hell for opposing offenses, and I believe it would be beneficial for the toughest home offenses on the schedule to come early in the year. There won’t be tape available showing how DC Vance Joseph will deploy Alex Singleton, Jahdae Barron and Talanoa Hufanga together with returning pieces, nor will last year’s tape showing how to play away from Patrick Surtain be relevant. While the Broncos home games in September ATS edge has declined in recent years due to market efficiency and bad Broncos teams, there is still something to be said about the conditioning advantage the Broncos have playing at home early in the year—and defenses being ahead of offenses early, too.

Miami Dolphins

Best schedule scenario: Possible cold weather way games stacked early.

The narrative of Miami struggling in cold-weather games under Mike McDaniel is often defended online, citing noise and bad luck in the outcomes. I just have a hard time looking past the lack of effort, missed tackles, and visual disinterest shown by his players when temperatures drop on the road. They even travel with heaters when the temps fall below 55 degrees. With Cleveland and Pittsburgh listed as out-of-division road opponents, Miami has the potential for five of their eight games away from Miami (not counting Spain) to be played in cold temperatures if scheduled later in the season. The Dolphins’ road schedule is the second easiest in football, with opponents averaging a rating of (-1.94), and there are benefits beyond just weather to getting these matchups early. Pittsburgh, NY Jets, New England, and Cleveland are each working through head coach and/or quarterback changes. Depending on what happens with Ramsey and Hill, Miami may be no worse than a 43–45% win probability in those games, and favored in three.

Thank you for reading,

Adam