Winners and Losers of the NFL Schedule Release

The NFL Schedule was released last night.

Here are the teams that got the best—and worst—of it…

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Buffalo Bills – Winner

The Bills have the 5th-easiest overall schedule and the easiest road schedule in the league. While it was already expected to be a soft slate, the way the games are sequenced is a dream scenario for Buffalo.

• They open with four of their first five games at home (including three straight—teams win 65% of those league-wide).

• Five of their first six games come against opponents currently rated below average.

• They have the entire offseason to prepare for Baltimore.

• Their four toughest opponents—Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay—all come at home, in the second half, spaced out by at least two weeks each.

• No three-game road trips.

• Their one Monday Night Football appearance is followed by a bye, eliminating short rest.

This is the clearest path to the No. 1 seed of any team in the league.

Carolina Panthers – Winner

The Panthers ended 2024 on a high note: Dave Canales got his system clicking, Bryce Young found his confidence, and injured defensive players returned as the unit turned a corner. This offseason, they added more weapons and bolstered the defense.

• This young team needs to stack early wins, and they drew an ideal opening stretch.

• Nine of their first eleven games are against opponents rated below average—including the first seven games.

• They don’t face Buffalo, Green Bay, San Francisco, the Rams, or Tampa Bay (twice) until November.

Perfect setup for a developmental leap without pressure building early.

Arizona Cardinals – Winner

The Cardinals are poised for a significant step forward in 2025.

• Jonathan Gannon improved the team by four wins in Year 2, and his defense now looks fully in place after a strong offseason.

• They open the year facing:

  • Tyler Shough (rookie)

  • Bryce Young

  • Sam Darnold (learning a new offense)

  • Cam Ward (rookie)

  • And a TBD Colts QB

• Of their nine road games, five are indoors.

• Of the four outdoor games, only one poses a potential weather risk—Week 17.

Arizona gets the second-biggest improvement in opponent strength, benefits from dome-heavy travel, and has a favorable early slate. Strong setup across the board.

New England Patriots – Winner

A bet on New England futures this season is a bet on three things:

1. Mike Vrabel turning the program around.

2. The defense regaining its form.

3. Drake Maye taking a leap in Year 2.

This schedule is ideal for each.

• In their first nine games, the Patriots face only one opponent rated above average in preseason metrics—Buffalo.

• If Michael Penix is considered a “new” full-time starter, then six of those nine opposing QBs are new to their team.

• Tough matchups against Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Baltimore come late in the year, giving Vrabel time to mold the team.

Subjectively, I think this schedule could play easier in the first eight weeks than expected.

San Francisco 49ers – Winner

It was already known the 49ers had the easiest schedule in 2025. The official draw only made it better:

• They improve from the 5th-hardest in 2024 to the #1 easiest overall in 2025.

• They jump from a -22 to a +9 net rest advantage—a full month of added rest versus opponents this season.

• They face no opponents coming off a bye.

• Eight of their final ten games are against teams coming off road games.

Massive edge in recovery and scheduling flow. No excuses here.

Tennessee Titans – Loser

Cam Ward will debut on the road in Denver—possibly against the best defense the NFL has seen in a decade.

Then:

• The young Rams’ defense that finished top 12 last year

• An under rated Colts defense with Lou Anarumo as the new DC

• Houston’s suffocating pass defense that finished 5th last year

• A revamped Arizona defense—also on the road in Arizona

• Maxx Crosby and the Raiders pass rush—third road game in a row (31% win rate since 2021)

That’s four of six on the road, against a brutal run of opposing defenses and pass rushes.

Brutal stretch to break in a rookie QB and new offensive pieces.

New York Giants – Loser

The Giants already had one of the league’s toughest slates, and the draw only made it worse.

In their first eight weeks, they face:

• Philadelphia (twice)

• Kansas City

• at Denver

• at Washington

• at Dallas

• at New Orleans

• LA Chargers

There’s no break in the schedule. No soft spots.

What happens internally with the team if losses begin mounting?

• Does Brian Daboll make it through the season?

• Does Jaxson Dart get a shot?

• Can this improved defensive front even matter if the offense can’t move the ball?

This is brutal.

Kansas City Chiefs – Loser

The Chiefs are scheduled for at least eight primetime or standalone games, with five in September and October.

• A ninth is very possible via flex scheduling (though the rules appear unclear after this release—used to be a six-game cap).

• Since 2014, teams with 6+ standalone games fail to meet their win total by 0.60 wins on average.

• Three standalone games are road games out of division at the Giants, Jacksonville, and Dallas—which will now be peak HFA games for those teams.

• Other teams with 7–8 standalone games—Washington, Minnesota, Detroit, Dallas—have better balance with divisional parity. The Chiefs got the short end here.

• A usual “home” game in Los Angeles vs. the Chargers is now being played in Brazil.

Philadelphia Eagles – Loser

The Eagles face the third-hardest schedule in 2025. That’s tough in itself, but there’s also a bizarre quirk:

• Their longest homestand all season is just one game.

• They alternate home and away every week, with the only exception being Weeks 6 and 7—back-to-back road games.

I don’t know if I have seen this happen before? It will be a grind all season.

Chicago Bears – Winner (Bye Week Timing/Sequencing)

While the Bears have the fifth-hardest schedule overall, the timing of the opening games works in their favor.

Opening stretch:

1. vs. Minnesota (McCarthy QB debut)

2. at Detroit

3. vs. Dallas

4. at Las Vegas (second-easiest game on their schedule)

Ben Johnson is never making a change from Caleb Williams, so the late bye week many first year head coaches benefit from is a moot point here. I see having the earliest bye week possible to be a great thing for Chicago. It allows Johnson to make quick, drastic changes to anything needed with Williams in his scheme, the new offensive line pieces or receiving threats. 3-1 is not out of the question here either with that opening.